House District 178

Forecast

Democrat

Monica J Weninger

Republican

Kristin Marcell

Rating

Likely R

Expected margin

R+9.9 (90% range R+21.6 to D+1.6)

Chance of flipping

7.8%

Tipping-point chance

0.0% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-10.2
= Fundamentals before candidates	R+3.6
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	-0.7
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	-1.2
= Fundamentals margin	R+8.3
District polls (1, average R+12.0, weight 35%)	-1.3
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	-0.3
Final expected margin	R+9.9

District-level error SD 5.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.0 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+13.0	R+1.8	-11.2	0.45
2022 Governor	D+10.2	D+15.0	-4.8	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	R+5.7	D+5.0	-10.7	0.2
2020 President	R+8.7	D+1.1	-9.8	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): R+22.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -11.7, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Kristin Marcell (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $27,941 · R $156,927

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Paul G Lang Jr	Kristin Marcell	R+22.7
2022	Ilya Breyman	Kristin Marcell	R+13.1
2020	Ann Marie Mitchell	Wendi Thomas	R+10.9