House District 8
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Aaron Bernstine)
Forecast
100%
chance Aaron Joseph Bernstine (R) wins
- Democrat
- Richard E Telesz
- Republican
- Aaron Joseph Bernstine
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+34.1 (90% range R+46.9 to R+21.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -39.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+33.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -1.6 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+37.5 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +3.4 |
| Final expected margin | R+34.1 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+42.2 | R+1.8 | -40.5 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+22.0 | D+15.0 | -37.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+33.5 | D+5.0 | -38.5 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+41.7 | D+1.1 | -42.9 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Aaron Bernstine (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $10,743 · R $110,016
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Aaron Joseph Bernstine | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Aaron Joseph Bernstine | uncontested |
| 2020 | Phillip C Heasley | Timothy R. Bonner | R+50.3 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +3.4 points.