House District 1
Northwest PA · currently held by D (Patrick J. Harkins) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Patrick J Harkins (D) wins
- Democrat
- Patrick J Harkins
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+38.4 (90% range D+25.8 to D+51.0)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +28.9 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+35.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+38.4 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+38.4 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+24.4 | R+1.8 | +26.2 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+47.4 | D+15.0 | +32.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+38.2 | D+5.0 | +33.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+28.1 | D+1.1 | +27.0 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Patrick J. Harkins (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Patrick J Harkins | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Patrick J Harkins | nan | D+100.0 |
| 2020 | Patrick J Harkins | nan | uncontested |