House District 123
Northeast PA · currently held by R (Tim Twardzik)
Forecast
100%
chance Timothy F Twardzik (R) wins
- Democrat
- John A Deatrich Jr
- Republican
- Timothy F Twardzik
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+27.9 (90% range R+40.4 to R+15.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -31.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+24.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -1.7 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+29.3 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.4 |
| Final expected margin | R+27.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+34.1 | R+1.8 | -32.4 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+10.4 | D+15.0 | -25.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+22.3 | D+5.0 | -27.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+31.8 | D+1.1 | -33.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+45.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -34.8, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Tim Twardzik (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michael Zvalaren Iii | Timothy Frank Twardzik | R+45.8 |
| 2022 | Kathleen J Benyak | Timothy F Twardzik | R+36.8 |
| 2020 | Peter James Symons Jr. | Timothy F Twardzik | R+25.3 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.4 points.