House District 22
Lehigh Valley · currently held by D (Ana Tiburcio, not running) · open seat
Forecast
100%
chance Cecilia Gerlach (D) wins
- Democrat
- Cecilia Gerlach
- Republican
- Robert E Smith Jr
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+29.4 (90% range D+16.4 to D+42.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +24.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+31.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+31.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.9 |
| Final expected margin | D+29.4 |
District-level error SD 6.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.9 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+17.7 | R+1.8 | +19.4 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+39.6 | D+15.0 | +24.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+35.0 | D+5.0 | +29.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+34.0 | D+1.1 | +32.8 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Ana Tiburcio (D)
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Joshua M Siegel | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Joshua M Siegel | Robert E Smith Jr | D+27.5 |
| 2020 | Peter Schweyer | nan | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.9 points.