House District 99
Central PA · currently held by R (David H. Zimmerman)
Forecast
100%
chance David H Zimmerman (R) wins
- Democrat
- Ethan Gabrick
- Republican
- David H Zimmerman
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+36.4 (90% range R+49.1 to R+23.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -42.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+35.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -2.1 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+40.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +4.2 |
| Final expected margin | R+36.5 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+42.9 | R+1.8 | -41.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+28.9 | D+15.0 | -43.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+38.8 | D+5.0 | -43.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+41.6 | D+1.1 | -42.7 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- David H. Zimmerman (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $2,752 · R $54,595
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | David H Zimmerman | uncontested |
| 2022 | Joshua Michael Caltagirone | David H. Zimmerman | R+42.9 |
| 2020 | Richard Michael Hodge | David H. Zimmerman | R+46.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +4.2 points.