House District 132
Lehigh Valley · currently held by D (Michael H. Schlossberg)
Forecast
100%
chance Michael Harry Schlossberg (D) wins
- Democrat
- Michael Harry Schlossberg
- Republican
- Caren Lowrey
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+26.0 (90% range D+13.4 to D+38.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.4% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +14.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+21.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +2.9 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+26.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.7 |
| Final expected margin | D+26.0 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+12.1 | R+1.8 | +13.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+30.6 | D+15.0 | +15.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+19.3 | D+5.0 | +14.2 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+15.4 | D+1.1 | +14.3 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Michael H. Schlossberg (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $416,377 · R $6,180
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michael Harry Schlossberg | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Michael Harry Schlossberg | Bethney Quinn Finch | D+24.3 |
| 2020 | Michael Schlossberg | Michael L Mccreary | D+35.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.7 points.