House District 29
Collar counties · currently held by D (Tim Brennan)
Forecast
100%
chance Timothy Patrick Brennan (D) wins
- Democrat
- Timothy Patrick Brennan
- Republican
- Sean Patrick Duffy
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+27.4 (90% range D+14.8 to D+40.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.2% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +16.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+23.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.2 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+28.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.2 |
| Final expected margin | D+27.4 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+15.1 | R+1.8 | +16.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+30.8 | D+15.0 | +15.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+17.1 | D+5.0 | +12.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+17.2 | D+1.1 | +16.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+13.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +19.1, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Tim Brennan (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $143,690 · R $21,885
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Timothy Patrick Brennan | Steven Mekanik | D+13.7 |
| 2022 | Timothy Patrick Brennan | Diane Smith | D+15.5 |
| 2020 | Marlene Katz | Meghan Schroeder | R+11.4 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.2 points.