House District 157
Collar counties · currently held by D (Melissa L. Shusterman)
Forecast
100%
chance Melissa Lynn Shusterman (D) wins
- Democrat
- Melissa Lynn Shusterman
- Republican
- Justin J Pak
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+33.5 (90% range D+21.0 to D+46.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +24.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+31.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.9 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.7 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+36.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -3.2 |
| Final expected margin | D+33.5 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+25.2 | R+1.8 | +26.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+36.4 | D+15.0 | +21.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+23.1 | D+5.0 | +18.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+26.9 | D+1.1 | +25.8 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+21.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +26.4, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Melissa L. Shusterman (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $40,745 · R $3,339
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Melissa Shusterman | Regina M Mauro | D+21.0 |
| 2022 | Melissa Shusterman | Sarah K Marvin | D+23.0 |
| 2020 | Melissa L Shusterman | Bryan D Walters | D+25.0 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -3.2 points.