House District 51
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Charity Grimm Krupa) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance Charity Grimm Krupa (R) wins
- Democrat
- — (no candidate)
- Republican
- Charity Grimm Krupa
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+19.2 (90% range R+31.8 to R+6.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -25.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+19.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.7 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+19.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | R+19.2 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+33.5 | R+1.8 | -31.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+7.7 | D+15.0 | -22.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+18.0 | D+5.0 | -23.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+29.4 | D+1.1 | -30.5 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+31.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -20.3, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Charity Grimm Krupa (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | George Anthony Rattay | Charity Grimm Krupa | R+31.3 |
| 2022 | Richard Ringer | Charity Grimm Krupa | R+23.6 |
| 2020 | Kevin D Jones | Matthew David Dowling | R+37.3 |