House District 40
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Natalie Mihalek)
Forecast
72%
chance Natalie Nicole Stuck (R) wins
- Democrat
- Jonathan C Lloyd
- Republican
- Natalie Nicole Stuck
- Rating
- Lean R
- Expected margin
- R+4.3 (90% range R+16.8 to D+8.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 28.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.7% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -6.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+0.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -1.6 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+3.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.2 |
| Final expected margin | R+4.3 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+5.9 | R+1.8 | -4.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+12.4 | D+15.0 | -2.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+2.1 | D+5.0 | -7.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+7.6 | D+1.1 | -8.8 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+20.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -9.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Natalie Mihalek (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $21,862 · R $4,176
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Peter Kohnke | Natalie Stuck | R+20.7 |
| 2022 | Christopher D Todd | Natalie Nicole Stuck | R+13.6 |
| 2020 | Sharon Guidi | Natalie Nicole Mihalek Stuck | R+21.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Likely R (very likely r) | 16% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.2 points.