House District 93
Central PA · currently held by R (Mike Jones)
Forecast
100%
chance Paul Michael Jones (R) wins
- Democrat
- Melissa Ann Barnes
- Republican
- Paul Michael Jones
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+21.6 (90% range R+34.4 to R+8.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.3%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -25.9 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+19.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -1.0 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+23.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.5 |
| Final expected margin | R+21.6 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+26.4 | R+1.8 | -24.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+10.3 | D+15.0 | -25.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+22.4 | D+5.0 | -27.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+27.3 | D+1.1 | -28.4 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Mike Jones (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $13,456 · R $55,565
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Paul Michael Jones | uncontested |
| 2022 | Christopher D Rodkey | Paul Michael Jones | R+29.8 |
| 2020 | nan | Paul Michael Jones | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 1% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.5 points.