House District 177
Philadelphia · currently held by D (Joseph C. Hohenstein)
Forecast
100%
chance Joseph C Hohenstein (D) wins
- Democrat
- Joseph C Hohenstein
- Republican
- Robyn L Bird
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+35.0 (90% range D+22.1 to D+47.8)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +28.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+35.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+38.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -3.7 |
| Final expected margin | D+35.0 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+23.9 | R+1.8 | +25.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+46.3 | D+15.0 | +31.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+38.2 | D+5.0 | +33.2 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+28.8 | D+1.1 | +27.7 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Joseph C. Hohenstein (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $94,017 · R $30,740
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Joseph C Hohenstein | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Joseph Hohenstein | Mark Joseph Lavelle | D+31.6 |
| 2020 | Joe Hohenstein | John Arthur Nungesser | D+19.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -3.7 points.