House District 145
Collar counties · currently held by R (Craig T. Staats)
Forecast
82%
chance Craig T Staats wins
- Independent (no Democrat filed)
- Rebecca Catherine Prendergast (Independent)
- Republican
- Craig T Staats
- Others
- Rebecca Catherine Prendergast (Independent Party)
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+6.2 (90% range R+17.6 to D+5.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 18.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -12.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+5.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.6 |
| + independent_penalty | -6.0 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+11.5 |
| District polls (1, average R+3.0, weight 63%) | +5.4 |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.0 |
| Final expected margin | R+6.2 |
No Democrat is on the ballot; Rebecca Catherine Prendergast (independent) is modelled as the challenger: the margin starts from what a generic Democrat would get here, minus a 6.0-point penalty for running without a party, then the district poll enters directly. An independent win counts for neither party's majority.
District-level error SD 5.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 6.9 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+15.7 | R+1.8 | -13.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+0.1 | D+15.0 | -15.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+8.5 | D+5.0 | -13.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+13.2 | D+1.1 | -14.4 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+17.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -6.8, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Craig T. Staats (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Vera J Cole | Craig T. Staats | R+17.8 |
| 2022 | James E Miller Jr | Craig T. Staats | R+18.2 |
| 2020 | Robyn Colajezzi | Craig T Staats | R+19.4 |
District polls
| Pollster | Sponsor | End | n | Margin | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | none (State Navigate polling fund) | 2026-10-14 | 514 | R+3.0 | R+3.0 | 100% |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Likely R (very likely r) | 21% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.0 points.