House District 66
Northwest PA · currently held by R (Brian Smith)
Forecast
100%
chance Brian A Smith (R) wins
- Democrat
- Lisa M Gourley
- Republican
- Brian A Smith
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+46.7 (90% range R+59.4 to R+34.0)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -58.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+52.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +0.6 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+54.3 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +7.6 |
| Final expected margin | R+46.7 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+60.2 | R+1.8 | -58.5 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+43.3 | D+15.0 | -58.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+52.9 | D+5.0 | -57.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+60.4 | D+1.1 | -61.6 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Brian Smith (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $22,934 · R $9,000
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Brian A Smith | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Brian A Smith | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Brian A Smith | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +7.6 points.