House District 101
Central PA · currently held by R (John A. Schlegel) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance John A Schlegel (R) wins
- Democrat
- — (no candidate)
- Republican
- John A Schlegel
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+17.8 (90% range R+30.6 to R+5.0)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -21.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+15.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+17.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | R+17.8 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+23.1 | R+1.8 | -21.4 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+4.7 | D+15.0 | -19.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+18.1 | D+5.0 | -23.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+22.0 | D+1.1 | -23.1 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- John A. Schlegel (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | John A Schlegel | uncontested |
| 2022 | Catherine Victoria Miller | John A Schlegel | R+24.3 |
| 2020 | Calvin Craig Clements | Francis X Ryan | R+25.6 |