House District 73
Northwest PA · currently held by R (Dallas Kephart) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance Dallas Paul Kephart (R) wins
- Democrat
- — (no candidate)
- Republican
- Dallas Paul Kephart
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+46.7 (90% range R+59.5 to R+33.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -50.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+43.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+46.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | R+46.6 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+53.1 | R+1.8 | -51.3 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+33.4 | D+15.0 | -48.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+44.5 | D+5.0 | -49.5 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+50.8 | D+1.1 | -52.0 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Dallas Kephart (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Dallas Paul Kephart | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Dallas Paul Kephart | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Thomas R Sankey Iii | uncontested |