House District 84
Central PA · currently held by R (Joe Hamm) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance Joseph D Hamm (R) wins
- Democrat
- — (no candidate)
- Republican
- Joseph D Hamm
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+50.9 (90% range R+63.5 to R+38.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -54.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+48.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+50.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | R+50.9 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+54.5 | R+1.8 | -52.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+42.1 | D+15.0 | -57.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+50.8 | D+5.0 | -55.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+54.8 | D+1.1 | -55.9 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Joe Hamm (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Joseph D Hamm | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Joseph D Hamm | uncontested |
| 2020 | Amanda R Waldman | Joseph D Hamm | R+57.7 |