House District 91
Central PA · currently held by R (Dan Moul)
Forecast
100%
chance Daniel P Moul (R) wins
- Democrat
- Kathleen Adams Pratt
- Republican
- Daniel P Moul
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+23.8 (90% range R+36.6 to R+11.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -28.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+21.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -0.7 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+25.4 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.7 |
| Final expected margin | R+23.8 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+29.6 | R+1.8 | -27.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+12.9 | D+15.0 | -27.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+24.0 | D+5.0 | -29.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+29.8 | D+1.1 | -31.0 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Dan Moul (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $27,580 · R $74,459
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Daniel P Moul | uncontested |
| 2022 | Marty L Qually | Daniel P Moul | R+30.9 |
| 2020 | nan | Daniel P. Moul | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 1% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.7 points.