House District 38
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by D (John C. Inglis III)
Forecast
100%
chance John C Inglis III (D) wins
- Democrat
- John C Inglis III
- Republican
- Stone Sobieralski
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+24.0 (90% range D+11.2 to D+36.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.6% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +10.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+17.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +3.0 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +2.7 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+25.5 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.6 |
| Final expected margin | D+23.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+3.3 | R+1.8 | +5.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+28.5 | D+15.0 | +13.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+17.0 | D+5.0 | +12.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+3.8 | D+1.1 | +2.6 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+11.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +16.4, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- John C. Inglis III (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $91,179 · R $1,841
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | John C Inglis Iii | Stone Sobieralski | D+11.0 |
| 2022 | Nickolas Pisciottano | nan | uncontested |
| 2020 | Nickolas R Pisciottano | Linda J Book | D+12.2 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.6 points.