House District 46
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Jason Ortitay)
Forecast
90%
chance Jason A Ortitay (R) wins
- Democrat
- Michael Crossey
- Republican
- Jason A Ortitay
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+9.7 (90% range R+22.3 to D+3.0)
- Chance of flipping
- 10.3%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -12.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+5.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.6 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -0.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+9.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.5 |
| Final expected margin | R+9.7 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+14.8 | R+1.8 | -13.0 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+7.6 | D+15.0 | -7.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+4.6 | D+5.0 | -9.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+13.6 | D+1.1 | -14.8 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+24.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -13.3, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jason Ortitay (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $36,546 · R $57,675
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Alexander Taylor | Jason A. Ortitay | R+24.3 |
| 2022 | nan | Jason A Ortitay | uncontested |
| 2020 | Byron F Timmins | Jason A Ortitay | R+24.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 7% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.5 points.