House District 94
Central PA · currently held by R (Wendy Fink)
Forecast
100%
chance Wendy Fink (R) wins
- Democrat
- Konnor John-richard Grimek
- Republican
- Wendy Fink
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+27.4 (90% range R+40.1 to R+14.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -32.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+26.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+29.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.6 |
| Final expected margin | R+27.4 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+34.7 | R+1.8 | -32.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+15.7 | D+15.0 | -30.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+27.8 | D+5.0 | -32.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+34.0 | D+1.1 | -35.1 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Wendy Fink (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Wendy Fink | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Wendy Jo Fink | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Stanley E. Saylor | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.6 points.