House District 75
Northwest PA · currently held by R (Mike Armanini)
Forecast
100%
chance Michael J Armanini (R) wins
- Democrat
- Kimberly Kohlhepp
- Republican
- Michael J Armanini
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+38.9 (90% range R+51.7 to R+26.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -46.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+40.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -1.1 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+43.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +5.0 |
| Final expected margin | R+38.9 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+48.8 | R+1.8 | -47.0 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+30.3 | D+15.0 | -45.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+40.6 | D+5.0 | -45.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+47.5 | D+1.1 | -48.7 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Mike Armanini (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $12,781 · R $66,230
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Michael J Armanini | uncontested |
| 2022 | Erica L Vogt | Michael J. Armanini | R+52.1 |
| 2020 | Ryan S Grimm | Michael J. Armanini | R+52.5 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +5.0 points.