House District 50
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Bud Cook, not running) · open seat
Forecast
100%
chance Benjamin D Humble (R) wins
- Democrat
- Lois Bower-bjornson
- Republican
- Benjamin D Humble
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+22.5 (90% range R+35.2 to R+9.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -30.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+23.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+23.4 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.9 |
| Final expected margin | R+22.5 |
District-level error SD 6.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+37.3 | R+1.8 | -35.5 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+10.0 | D+15.0 | -25.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+20.2 | D+5.0 | -25.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+33.4 | D+1.1 | -34.5 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+38.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -27.2, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Bud Cook (R)
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Drew E. R. Manko | Donald Cook | R+38.2 |
| 2022 | Douglas Earl Mason | Donald Cook | R+23.9 |
| 2020 | Pam Snyder | Larry W Yost Ii | D+6.5 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.9 points.