House District 111
Northeast PA · currently held by R (Jonathan Fritz)
Forecast
100%
chance Jonathan A Fritz (R) wins
- Democrat
- Kyle T Devlin
- Republican
- Jonathan A Fritz
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+35.7 (90% range R+48.5 to R+23.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -41.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+34.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -2.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+39.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +4.0 |
| Final expected margin | R+35.7 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+42.5 | R+1.8 | -40.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+29.2 | D+15.0 | -44.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+35.0 | D+5.0 | -40.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+39.1 | D+1.1 | -40.2 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jonathan Fritz (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $6,397 · R $194,860
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Jonathan A Fritz | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Jonathan A Fritz | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Jonathan A Fritz | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +4.0 points.