House District 9
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Marla Brown)
Forecast
100%
chance Marla Ann Brown (R) wins
- Democrat
- Shay Micco
- Republican
- Marla Ann Brown
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+21.0 (90% range R+33.7 to R+8.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.4%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -25.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+18.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+21.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.8 |
| Final expected margin | R+21.0 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+30.0 | R+1.8 | -28.2 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+5.6 | D+15.0 | -20.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+18.4 | D+5.0 | -23.5 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+25.8 | D+1.1 | -27.0 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Marla Brown (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Marla Gallo Brown | uncontested |
| 2022 | Christopher Sainato | Marla A Brown | R+5.9 |
| 2020 | Christopher Sainato | Carol Lynne Ryan | D+11.6 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 1% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.8 points.