House District 158
Collar counties · currently held by D (Christina D. Sappey) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance Christina D Sappey (D) wins
- Democrat
- Christina D Sappey
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+29.5 (90% range D+16.9 to D+42.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +18.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+25.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+29.5 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+29.5 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+17.8 | R+1.8 | +19.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+29.7 | D+15.0 | +14.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+20.2 | D+5.0 | +15.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+20.1 | D+1.1 | +19.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+16.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +21.4, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Christina D. Sappey (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Christina D Sappey | Tina Louise Ayala | D+16.0 |
| 2022 | Christina D. Sappey | Leon R. Spencer Jr. | D+11.3 |
| 2020 | Christina Sappey | Eric Mark Roe | D+1.4 |