House District 3
Northwest PA · currently held by D (Ryan A. Bizzarro)
Forecast
100%
chance Ryan A Bizzarro (D) wins
- Democrat
- Ryan A Bizzarro
- Republican
- Donna Rae Reese
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+24.5 (90% range D+11.8 to D+36.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.5% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +9.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+16.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +5.6 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +2.1 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+25.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.5 |
| Final expected margin | D+24.5 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+2.0 | R+1.8 | +3.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+25.6 | D+15.0 | +10.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+9.5 | D+5.0 | +4.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+2.2 | D+1.1 | +1.1 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+15.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +20.8, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Ryan A. Bizzarro (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $322,435 · R $16,523
- Target lists
- DLCC
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ryan Bizzarro | Micah S. Goring | D+15.4 |
| 2022 | Ryan A Bizzarro | Joseph S Kujawa | D+28.1 |
| 2020 | Ryan A Bizzarro | Greg S Hayes | D+22.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.5 points.