House District 58
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Eric Davanzo)
Forecast
100%
chance Eric M. Davanzo (R) wins
- Democrat
- Cherri Rogers
- Republican
- Eric M. Davanzo
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+24.6 (90% range R+37.3 to R+12.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -29.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+22.5 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.9 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -1.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+25.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.3 |
| Final expected margin | R+24.6 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+34.2 | R+1.8 | -32.5 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+9.9 | D+15.0 | -24.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+21.9 | D+5.0 | -27.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+31.7 | D+1.1 | -32.9 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+38.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -27.4, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Eric Davanzo (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $15,257 · R $127,741
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Cherri Lynn Rogers | Eric M. Davanzo | R+38.4 |
| 2022 | Kenneth James Bach | Eric M. Davanzo | R+26.5 |
| 2020 | Robert L Prah Jr | Eric M. Davanzo | R+26.4 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.3 points.