House District 148
Collar counties · currently held by D (Mary Jo Daley, not running) · open seat · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Megan Griffin-shelley (D) wins
- Democrat
- Megan Griffin-shelley
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+55.7 (90% range D+42.7 to D+68.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.4%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +49.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+55.6 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+55.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+55.6 |
District-level error SD 6.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.9 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+47.0 | R+1.8 | +48.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+65.5 | D+15.0 | +50.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+52.1 | D+5.0 | +47.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+51.5 | D+1.1 | +50.4 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Mary Jo Daley (D)
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mary Josephine Daley | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Mary Josephine Daley | Francis X O'Donnell | D+52.8 |
| 2020 | Mary Josephine Daley | Allen Arthur Anderson | D+40.1 |