House District 49
Central PA · currently held by D (Ismail Smith-Wade-El)
Forecast
100%
chance Ismail Smith-wade-el (D) wins
- Democrat
- Ismail Smith-wade-el
- Republican
- Vanessa Acosta
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+37.5 (90% range D+24.8 to D+50.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +32.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+39.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+42.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -4.6 |
| Final expected margin | D+37.5 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+30.3 | R+1.8 | +32.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+46.2 | D+15.0 | +31.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+38.8 | D+5.0 | +33.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+35.7 | D+1.1 | +34.6 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Ismail Smith-Wade-El (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ismail Muhammed Smith-Wade-El | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Ismail Smith-Wade-El | Anne Rivers | D+33.4 |
| 2020 | Randy J Barli | Donald Cook | R+27.1 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -4.6 points.