House District 134
Lehigh Valley · currently held by D (Peter Schweyer)
Forecast
100%
chance Peter Schweyer (D) wins
- Democrat
- Peter Schweyer
- Republican
- Miriam Alicia Maldonado
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+25.5 (90% range D+12.7 to D+38.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.4% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +16.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+23.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+26.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.6 |
| Final expected margin | D+25.5 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+13.0 | R+1.8 | +14.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+31.0 | D+15.0 | +15.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+23.8 | D+5.0 | +18.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+21.4 | D+1.1 | +20.3 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Peter Schweyer (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Peter George Schweyer | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Peter George Schweyer | Brent Labenberg | D+20.6 |
| 2020 | Marc I Basist | Ryan Mackenzie | R+20.2 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.6 points.