House District 107
Central PA · currently held by R (Joanne Stehr)
Forecast
100%
chance Joanne C Stehr (R) wins
- Democrat
- Ryan T Coleman
- Republican
- Joanne C Stehr
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+38.2 (90% range R+51.0 to R+25.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -46.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+40.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -0.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+43.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +4.8 |
| Final expected margin | R+38.2 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+49.1 | R+1.8 | -47.3 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+30.0 | D+15.0 | -45.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+40.4 | D+5.0 | -45.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+47.5 | D+1.1 | -48.6 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Joanne Stehr (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $1,080 · R $1,484
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Joanne Carol Stehr | uncontested |
| 2022 | Ryan Mock | Joanne Carol Stehr | R+50.4 |
| 2020 | nan | Kurt A Masser | R+100.0 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +4.8 points.