House District 183
Lehigh Valley · currently held by R (Zachary Mako)
Forecast
98%
chance Zachary Allen Mako (R) wins
- Democrat
- Deirdre J Kamber
- Republican
- Zachary Allen Mako
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+16.1 (90% range R+28.8 to R+3.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 2.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -19.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+13.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.1 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+16.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+16.0 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+21.9 | R+1.8 | -20.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+4.1 | D+15.0 | -19.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+12.8 | D+5.0 | -17.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+20.4 | D+1.1 | -21.6 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+31.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -20.1, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Zachary Mako (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Joseph William Lenzi | Zachary Allen Mako | R+31.1 |
| 2022 | nan | Zachary Allen Mako | uncontested |
| 2020 | Jason Ruff | Zachary Allen Mako | R+22.1 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 2% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.1 points.