House District 170
Philadelphia · currently held by R (Martina A. White)
Forecast
86%
chance Martina A White (R) wins
- Democrat
- Robert N Gurtcheff II
- Republican
- Martina A White
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+8.5 (90% range R+21.2 to D+4.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 13.7%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.2% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -9.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+2.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -2.8 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | +0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+7.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.7 |
| Final expected margin | R+8.4 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+14.7 | R+1.8 | -13.0 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+12.2 | D+15.0 | -2.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+3.4 | D+5.0 | -8.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+8.6 | D+1.1 | -9.7 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Martina A. White (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $11,950 · R $638,641
- Target lists
- other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Martina A White | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Martina A White | uncontested |
| 2020 | Michael F Doyle Jr | Martina A White | R+20.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 9% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.7 points.