House District 130
Central PA · currently held by R (David M. Maloney, not running) · open seat
Forecast
99%
chance Melissa G Brewer (R) wins
- Democrat
- Erik Bonnett
- Republican
- Melissa G Brewer
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+18.5 (90% range R+31.4 to R+5.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.9%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -23.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+17.0 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -2.0 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+19.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.6 |
| Final expected margin | R+18.5 |
District-level error SD 6.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+27.7 | R+1.8 | -26.0 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+9.0 | D+15.0 | -24.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+17.7 | D+5.0 | -22.7 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+26.4 | D+1.1 | -27.5 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+31.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -20.2, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- David M. Maloney (R)
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $3,205 · R $58,217
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Rayne R Reitnauer | David Mark Maloney | R+31.2 |
| 2022 | nan | David M Maloney | uncontested |
| 2020 | Francis Lamar Foley Jr | David M. Maloney Sr. | R+27.7 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 1% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.6 points.