House District 167
Collar counties · currently held by D (Kristine C. Howard)
Forecast
100%
chance Kristine C Howard (D) wins
- Democrat
- Kristine C Howard
- Republican
- Joseph M Lewis
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+29.8 (90% range D+17.3 to D+42.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +21.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+28.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.4 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +0.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+31.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -2.0 |
| Final expected margin | D+29.8 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+21.6 | R+1.8 | +23.3 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+34.3 | D+15.0 | +19.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+23.1 | D+5.0 | +18.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+24.1 | D+1.1 | +22.9 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+17.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +22.5, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Kristine C. Howard (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $18,792 · R $13,174
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Kristine C. Howard | Melissa C Dicranian | D+17.1 |
| 2022 | Kristine C. Howard | Gail A. Newman | D+19.9 |
| 2020 | Kristine C Howard | Wendy Graham Leland | D+11.7 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -2.0 points.