House District 56
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Brian C. Rasel) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Brian Casey Allen Rasel (R) wins
- Democrat
- — (no candidate)
- Republican
- Brian Casey Allen Rasel
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+21.4 (90% range R+34.1 to R+8.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.4%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -25.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+18.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+21.4 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | R+21.4 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+27.9 | R+1.8 | -26.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+5.1 | D+15.0 | -20.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+19.4 | D+5.0 | -24.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+29.1 | D+1.1 | -30.2 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Brian C. Rasel (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Brian Casey Allen Rasel | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | George Dunbar | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | George Dunbar | uncontested |