House District 141
Collar counties · currently held by D (Tina M. Davis)
Forecast
100%
chance Tina Marie Davis (D) wins
- Democrat
- Tina Marie Davis
- Republican
- Kenneth James Velez
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+33.2 (90% range D+20.6 to D+45.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +17.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+24.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +6.0 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +3.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+36.4 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -3.1 |
| Final expected margin | D+33.2 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+3.4 | R+1.8 | +5.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+30.1 | D+15.0 | +15.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+20.0 | D+5.0 | +15.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+11.5 | D+1.1 | +10.3 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+29.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +35.2, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Tina M. Davis (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $464,967 · R $3,050
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Tina Davis | Noah Jesse Boyd | D+29.8 |
| 2022 | Tina Marie Davis | Kelly A Bellerby-Allen | D+31.1 |
| 2020 | Tina Davis | Kelly A Bellerby-Allen | D+25.4 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -3.1 points.