House District 4
Northwest PA · currently held by R (Jacob D. Banta)
Forecast
99%
chance Jacob Banta (R) wins
- Democrat
- Kathryn A Divittorio
- Republican
- Jacob Banta
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+19.7 (90% range R+32.4 to R+6.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -23.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+16.5 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.6 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -0.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+20.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.5 |
| Final expected margin | R+19.6 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+26.2 | R+1.8 | -24.5 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+3.8 | D+15.0 | -18.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+15.0 | D+5.0 | -20.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+24.6 | D+1.1 | -25.8 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+35.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -24.3, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jacob D. Banta (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $4,575 · R $6,484
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Joseph Richard Cancilla | Jake Banta | R+35.3 |
| 2022 | Chelsea Oliver | Jacob Daniel Banta | R+22.9 |
| 2020 | nan | Curtis G. Sonney | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 1% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.5 points.