House District 100

Central PA · currently held by R (Bryan Cutler, not running) · open seat

Forecast

100%

chance David L Nissley wins

Independent (no Democrat filed): Dale Allen Hamby (Independent)
Republican: David L Nissley
Others: Dale Allen Hamby (Independent)
Rating: Safe R
Expected margin: R+43.3 (90% range R+57.3 to R+29.5)
Chance of flipping: 0.0%
Tipping-point chance: 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-50.5
= Fundamentals before candidates	R+43.8
+ independent_penalty	-6.0
= Fundamentals margin	R+49.8
No public district polls
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	+6.5
Final expected margin	R+43.3

No Democrat is on the ballot; Dale Allen Hamby (independent) is modelled as the challenger: the margin starts from what a generic Democrat would get here, minus a 6.0-point penalty for running without a party, then the district poll enters directly. An independent win counts for neither party's majority.

District-level error SD 7.4 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 8.5 pts.

Inputs

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+51.2	R+1.8	-49.5	0.45
2022 Governor	R+36.9	D+15.0	-52.0	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	R+45.8	D+5.0	-50.9	0.2
2020 President	R+49.7	D+1.1	-50.8	0.15

Candidates & money

Incumbent: Bryan Cutler (R)
Receipts: no matched PA DoS filings for both sides

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	nan	Bryan D. Cutler	uncontested
2022	nan	Bryan D. Cutler	uncontested
2020	nan	Bryan D Cutler	uncontested

External ratings

Source	Rating	Implied P(Dem)	Weight	As of
state_navigate	Safe R (solid r)	0%	0.25	2026-10-15

Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +6.5 points.