House District 196
Central PA · currently held by R (George H Margetas)
Forecast
100%
chance George Margetas (R) wins
- Democrat
- Ronald G Ruman
- Republican
- George Margetas
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+27.2 (90% range R+40.0 to R+14.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -32.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+26.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+29.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.8 |
| Final expected margin | R+27.1 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+33.8 | R+1.8 | -32.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+16.0 | D+15.0 | -31.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+29.3 | D+5.0 | -34.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+34.3 | D+1.1 | -35.5 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- George H Margetas (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Seth Michael Grove | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Seth M. Grove | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Seth Michael Grove | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.8 points.