House District 135
Lehigh Valley · currently held by D (Steve Samuelson)
Forecast
100%
chance Stephen P Samuelson (D) wins
- Democrat
- Stephen P Samuelson
- Republican
- Joseph F Poplawski
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+35.0 (90% range D+22.2 to D+47.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +27.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+34.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+38.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -3.7 |
| Final expected margin | D+34.9 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+26.0 | R+1.8 | +27.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+40.4 | D+15.0 | +25.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+32.7 | D+5.0 | +27.7 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+29.6 | D+1.1 | +28.5 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Steve Samuelson (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $19,100 · R $1,373
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Stephen P Samuelson | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Stephen P Samuelson | nan | uncontested |
| 2020 | Stephen P Samuelson | Scott J Hough | D+31.2 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -3.7 points.