House District 165
Collar counties · currently held by D (Jennifer O'Mara)
Forecast
100%
chance Jennifer O'mara (D) wins
- Democrat
- Jennifer O'mara
- Republican
- Deirdre D Mccleary
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+31.4 (90% range D+18.6 to D+44.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +20.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+26.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.1 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +2.0 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+33.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -2.5 |
| Final expected margin | D+31.3 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+17.4 | R+1.8 | +19.2 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+32.7 | D+15.0 | +17.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+22.7 | D+5.0 | +17.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+19.8 | D+1.1 | +18.6 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+19.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +24.6, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jennifer O'Mara (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $128,595 · R $7,728
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Jennifer O'Mara | Elizabeth L Piazza | D+19.2 |
| 2022 | Jennifer O'Mara | Nichole Leann Missino | D+23.7 |
| 2020 | Jennifer O'Mara | Robert F. Smythe Jr. | D+3.1 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -2.5 points.