House District 151
Collar counties · currently held by D (Melissa Cerrato)
Forecast
100%
chance Melissa Anne Cerrato (D) wins
- Democrat
- Melissa Anne Cerrato
- Republican
- Allen Arthur Anderson
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+34.0 (90% range D+21.4 to D+46.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +25.1 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+31.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.6 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+37.3 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -3.4 |
| Final expected margin | D+34.0 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+21.6 | R+1.8 | +23.4 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+41.3 | D+15.0 | +26.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+26.6 | D+5.0 | +21.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+25.5 | D+1.1 | +24.3 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+22.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +28.3, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Melissa Cerrato (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $19,698 · R $3,500
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Melissa Cerrato | Allen Arthur Anderson | D+22.9 |
| 2022 | Melissa Cerrato | William Todd Stephens | D+0.2 |
| 2020 | Jonathan Kassa | William Todd Stephens | R+6.2 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (uncontested d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -3.4 points.