House District 79
Central PA · currently held by R (Andrea C. Verobish)
Forecast
100%
chance Andrea C. Verobish (R) wins
- Democrat
- Charles Caleb Mccoy
- Republican
- Andrea C. Verobish
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+25.8 (90% range R+38.7 to R+12.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -31.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+25.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +0.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+27.5 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.7 |
| Final expected margin | R+25.8 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+32.9 | R+1.8 | -31.2 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+15.7 | D+15.0 | -30.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+27.2 | D+5.0 | -32.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+33.1 | D+1.1 | -34.3 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Andrea C. Verobish (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $17,065 · R $9,340
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Louis Charles Schmitt Jr. | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Louis C. Schmitt Jr. | uncontested |
| 2020 | Jason Runk | Louis C. Schmitt Jr. | R+40.4 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.7 points.