House District 39
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Andrew Kuzma)
Forecast
91%
chance Andrew M Kuzma (R) wins
- Democrat
- Dylan Anthony Altemara
- Republican
- Andrew M Kuzma
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+10.0 (90% range R+22.8 to D+2.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 9.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -14.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+7.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.6 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +0.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+9.5 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.6 |
| Final expected margin | R+10.2 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+19.2 | R+1.8 | -17.5 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+5.6 | D+15.0 | -9.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+6.7 | D+5.0 | -11.7 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+17.1 | D+1.1 | -18.3 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+24.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -13.1, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Andrew Kuzma (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $39,321 · R $22,950
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Angela Girol | Andrew M Kuzma | R+24.1 |
| 2022 | Richard C Self Jr | Andrew Kuzma | R+18.3 |
| 2020 | Sara-Summer Oliphant | Michael James Puskaric | R+25.6 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 6% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.6 points.