House District 161
Collar counties · currently held by D (Leanne Krueger)
Forecast
100%
chance Leanne Theresa Krueger (D) wins
- Democrat
- Leanne Theresa Krueger
- Republican
- John A Mancinelli Jr
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+27.6 (90% range D+14.9 to D+40.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.2% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +17.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+23.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+28.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.3 |
| Final expected margin | D+27.6 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+12.9 | R+1.8 | +14.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+29.8 | D+15.0 | +14.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+20.6 | D+5.0 | +15.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+16.2 | D+1.1 | +15.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+16.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +21.8, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Leanne Krueger (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Leanne T. Krueger | John Albert Mancinelli Jr. | D+16.4 |
| 2022 | Leanne T. Krueger | Edward A Mongelluzzo | D+19.2 |
| 2020 | Leanne Krueger | Ralph F. Shicatano Jr. | D+14.0 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.3 points.