House District 195
Philadelphia · currently held by D (Keith S. Harris, not running) · open seat · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance Sierra Denise Mcneil (D) wins
- Democrat
- Sierra Denise Mcneil
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+90.2 (90% range D+77.3 to D+103.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +83.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+90.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+90.3 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+90.3 |
District-level error SD 6.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.9 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+84.9 | R+1.8 | +86.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+91.2 | D+15.0 | +76.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+87.7 | D+5.0 | +82.7 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+87.0 | D+1.1 | +85.9 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Keith S. Harris (D)
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Keith S Harris | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Donna Bullock | nan | uncontested |
| 2020 | Donna Bullock | nan | uncontested |