House District 128
Central PA · currently held by R (Mark M. Gillen)
Forecast
94%
chance Mark M Gillen (R) wins
- Democrat
- Andrew Wagner
- Republican
- Mark M Gillen
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+12.3 (90% range R+25.0 to D+0.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 5.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -15.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+9.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -0.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+12.3 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.0 |
| Final expected margin | R+12.3 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+17.4 | R+1.8 | -15.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+1.1 | D+15.0 | -16.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+9.9 | D+5.0 | -15.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+15.4 | D+1.1 | -16.5 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Mark M. Gillen (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $17,954 · R $32,128
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Mark M. Gillen | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Mark M. Gillen | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Mark M Gillen | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 5% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.0 points.